PCMDI

CAPT

Cloud Feedbacks

CMIP5

CMIP3

Other MIPs

Software

Publications

Google Calendar

Lab Calendar


Site Map

UCRL-WEB-152471

Privacy & Legal Notice

Thanks to Our Sponsors:

PCMDI > WCRP CMIP3 Model Output > Diagnostic Subprojects Printer Friendly Version
 
<< Back to WCRP CMIP3 Subprojects

  • Stone, D. A., and M. R. Allen, 2005: Attribution of global surface warming without dynamical models. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L18711, doi:10.1029/2005GL023682.

Detection and attribution studies of observed surface temperature changes have served to consolidate our understanding of the climate system and its past and future behaviour. Most recent studies analysing up-to-date observations have relied on general circulation models (GCMs) to provide estimates of the responses to various external forcings. Here we revisit a methodology which instead estimates the responses using a simple model tuned directly to the observed record, parallelling a technique currently used with GCM output. The effects of greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulphate aerosols, and volcanic aerosols are all detected in the observed record, while the effects of solar irradiance are unclear. These results provide further observational constraints on past and future warming estimates consistent with those from recent studies with GCMs, supporting the notion that current estimates are robust against the modelling system used.


Full Article: http://www.atm.ox.ac.uk/user/stoned/papers/StoneDA_AllenMR_2005b.pdf

Last Updated: 2007-02-27

<< Back to WCRP CMIP3 Subprojects
 
For questions or comments regarding this website, please contact the Webmaster.
 
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  |  Physical & Life Sciences Directorate