Cloud Feedbacks



Other MIPs



Google Calendar

Lab Calendar

Site Map


Privacy & Legal Notice

Thanks to Our Sponsors:

PCMDI > WCRP CMIP3 Model Output > Diagnostic Subprojects Printer Friendly Version
<< Back to WCRP CMIP3 Subprojects

  • Dettinger, M., 2005: Consensus and scatter among climate-change projections for California. Geophysical Research Letters. Submitted.

During the past year, large numbers of global climate-change simulations have become available, in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4). An urgent quesiton is: Are the IPCC AR4 projections substantially different from previous projections? An ensemble of 84 AR4 projections of California climate change from 12 models responding to 3 greenhouse-gas emission scenarios was resampled to estimate projection distribution functions (pdfs). An 18-member ensemble from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (AR3) was similarly evaluated. Comparisons of AR4 and AR3 pdfs show that scatter within the AR3 and AR4 temperature and precipitation ensembles do not noticeably differ by end of the 21st Century, despite the larger size of the AR4 ensemble; precipitation projections for northern California are even more stationary in AR4 than in AR3; and AR4 warmings are generally 0.85 deg C less than AR3 because of the different models and emissions scenarios used.

Last Updated: 2006-03-30

<< Back to WCRP CMIP3 Subprojects
For questions or comments regarding this website, please contact the Webmaster.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  |  Physical & Life Sciences Directorate