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  • Ye W, Y. Li, R. Warrick, A method of incorporating GCM simulation result into the extreme event projection of future climate change for an integrated climate change impact assessment system. In preparation.

This paper introduced two methods that used to incorporate GCM simulation result to assess the climate change impact on extreme precipitation events by using GEV function. The two sites in New Zealand selected for this study indicate that the two methods projected similar changes for scale and shape parameters but quite different changes in location parameter. More testing is needed to examine whether this result are also applicable to other sites. For the two sites, the two methods all project an intensified extreme precipitation event, or higher risk, relative to baseline climate, even though the mean climate variable might indicate a opposite change direction.

This study is based on two global GCM daily precipiation simulations. The extreme precipitation events are rather local phenomenon, therefore it would be much appropriate to use regional GCM result for such an assessment purpose. More case studies are needed when regional GCMs are ready available for climate change impact assessment purpose.

Last Updated: 2007-03-07

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