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  • Santer, B.D. et al., 2006: Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103, 13905-13910, 10.1073/pnas.0602861103.

Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32 to 0.67C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that
century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system. We employ model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes. For the period 1906-2005, we find an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions. Model "20th century" simulations, with external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors, are generally capable of replicating observed SST increases. In experiments where forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly,
human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.

Last Updated: 2007-04-20

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