A regional atmospheric model with 60 km resolution is asynchronously coupled
with a potential vegetation model to study the implications of 21st century climate change for the tropical and subtropical climate and vegetation of South America. The coupled model produces an accurate simulation of the present day climate and vegetation. Future climate is simulated by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels to 757 ppmv and imposing lateral and surface boundary conditions derived from a GCM simulation for 2081-2100 from the Canadian Climate Center GCM.

The coupled regional model simulation projects a 70% reduction in the extent of
the Amazon rainforest by the end of the 21st century, and a large eastward expansion of the caatinga vegetation that is prominent the Nordeste region of Brazil today. These changes in vegetation are related to reductions in annual mean rainfall and a modification of the seasonal cycle that are associated with a weakening of tropical circulation systems.

Full Article: http://www.geo.cornell.edu/geology/faculty/Cook/SAFuture_final.pdf

Last Updated: 2007-07-25