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  • Knopf, B., 2006: On Intrinsic Uncertainties in Earth System Modelling. PhD thesis, University of Potsdam.

Uncertainties are pervasive in the Earth System modelling. This is not just due to a lack of knowledge about physical processes but has its seeds in intrinsic, i.e. inevitable and irreducible, uncertainties concerning the process of modelling as well. Therefore, it is indispensable to quantify uncertainty in order to determine, which are robust results under this inherent uncertainty. The central goal of this thesis is to explore how uncertainties map on the properties of interest such as phase space topology and qualitative dynamics of the system. We will address several types of uncertainty and apply methods of dynamical systems theory on a trendsetting field of climate research, i.e. the Indian monsoon.

With a monsoon model the uncertainty about the external influence of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is determined. There is evidence that ENSO influences the variability of the Indian monsoon, but the underlying physical mechanism is discussed controversially. As a contribution to the debate three different hypotheses are tested of how ENSO and the Indian summer monsoon are linked. In this thesis the coupling through the trade winds is identified as key in linking these two key climate constituents. On the basis of this physical mechanism the observed monsoon rainfall data can be reproduced to a great extent. Moreover, this mechanism can be identified in two general circulation models (GCMs) for the present day situation and for future projections under climate change.

Full Article: http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2006/1094/

Last Updated: 2007-07-26

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