PCMDI

CAPT

Cloud Feedbacks

CMIP5

CMIP3

Other MIPs

Software

Publications

Google Calendar

Lab Calendar


Site Map

UCRL-WEB-152471

Privacy & Legal Notice

Thanks to Our Sponsors:

PCMDI > WCRP CMIP3 Model Output > Diagnostic Subprojects Printer Friendly Version
 
<< Back to WCRP CMIP3 Subproject Publications

  • Palmer, T.N., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, and M. Rodwell, 2007: Towards Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate-Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts. BAMS. Submitted.

Trustworthy probabilistic projections of regional climate are essential for society to plan for future climate change, and yet, by the nonlinear nature of climate, finite computational models of climate are inherently deficient in their ability to simulate regional climatic variability with complete accuracy. How can we determine whether specific regional climate projections may be untrustworthy in the light of such generic deficiencies? A calibration method is proposed whose basis lies in the emerging notion of seamless prediction. Specifically, calibrations of ensemble-based climate-change probabilities are derived from analyses of the statistical reliability of ensemble-based forecast probabilities on seasonal timescales. The method is demonstrated by calibrating probabilistic projections from the multi-model ensembles used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on reliability analyses from the seasonal-forecast DEMETER dataset. The focus in this paper is on climate-change projections of regional precipitation, though the method is more general.


Last Updated: 2007-07-27

<< Back to WCRP CMIP3 Subproject Publications
 
For questions or comments regarding this website, please contact the Webmaster.
 
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  |  Physical & Life Sciences Directorate