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  • Kiktev, D., Caesar, J., Alexander, L.V., Shiogama, H. and M.A. Collier, 2007: Comparison of observed and multimodeled trends in annual extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 5, doi:10.1029/2007GL029539.

The performance of five global coupled climate models
in simulating temporal trends in annual indices of extremes
in surface temperature and precipitation during the second
half of the 20th century is examined. The selected models are
all represented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Linear trend
patterns for individual model runs along with single- and
multimodel ensemble mean trend patterns are objectively
compared against corresponding observed trend fields.
Some positive effects of the multimodel ‘‘super-ensemble’’
approach were found when there was reasonable skill
in contributing members.

Last Updated: 2007-07-29

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