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  • Allan, R.P., and B.J. Soden, 2007: Large discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation trends in the ascending and descending branches of the tropical circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L18705, doi:10.1029/2007GL031460.

Observed and model simulated changes in precipitation
are examined using vertical motion at 500 hP a to define as-
cending and descending branches of the tropical circulation.
Vertical motion fields from reanalyses were employed to sub-
sample the observed precipitation data. An emerging signal
of rising precipitation trends in the ascending regions and
decreasing trends in the descending regimes are detected in
the observational datasets. These trends are substantially
larger in magnitude than present-day model simulations and
pro jections into the 21st century. The discrepancy cannot
be explained by changes in the reanalysis fields used to sub-
sample the observations but instead must relate to errors in
the satellite data or in the model parametrizations. This
has important implications for future predictions of climate
change, the reliability of the observing system and the mon-
itoring of the global water cycle.


Full Article: http://www.nerc-essc.ac.uk/~rpa/PAPERS/allan_and_soden_2007.pdf

Last Updated: 2007-11-15

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