PCMDI

CAPT

Cloud Feedbacks

CMIP5

CMIP3

Other MIPs

Software

Publications

Google Calendar

Lab Calendar


Site Map

UCRL-WEB-152471

Privacy & Legal Notice

Thanks to Our Sponsors:

PCMDI > WCRP CMIP3 Model Output > Diagnostic Subprojects Printer Friendly Version
 
<< Back to WCRP CMIP3 Subproject Publications

  • Shukla, J., T. DelSole, M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, and D. Paolino, 2006: Climate Model Fidelity and Projections of Climate Change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, doi:10.1029/2005GL025579.

Relative entropy, which is a measure of the difference between two probability
distributions, has been calculated for the simulations of the climate of the 20th century from
13 climate models and the observed surface air temperature during the past 100 years. This
quantity is used as a measure of model fidelity: a small value of relative entropy indicates
that a given modelís distribution is close to the observed. It is found that there is an inverse
relationship between relative entropy and the sensitivity of the model to doubling of the
concentration of CO2. The models that have lower values of relative entropy, hence have
higher fidelity in simulating the present climate, produce higher values of global warming for
a doubling of CO2. This suggests that the projected global warming due to increasing CO2 is
likely to be closer to the highest projected estimates among the current generation of climate
models.


Last Updated: 2007-09-06

<< Back to WCRP CMIP3 Subproject Publications
 
For questions or comments regarding this website, please contact the Webmaster.
 
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  |  Physical & Life Sciences Directorate