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  • Laepple, T., Jewson, S .and Coughlin, K., 2008: Interannual temperature predictions using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, doi:10.1029/2008GL033576. In press.

We present a simple method to make multi-year
surface temperature forecasts using the climate change
simulations of the CMIP3 database prepared for the IPCC
AR4 report. By calibrating the multi-model ensemble mean
with current observations, we are able to make skillful
interannual forecasts of mean temperatures. The method is
validated using extensive hindcast experiments and is
shown to perform favorably compared to a recent forecast
method based on a global circulation model with
assimilated initial conditions. Five year forecasts for the
global mean temperature, the Northern Hemispheric mean
temperature and the summer sea surface temperatures
(SSTs) in the main development region for hurricanes
(MDR) are presented.


Last Updated: 2008-05-05

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