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  • Lobell, D.B., M.B. Burke, C. Tebaldi, M.M. Mastrandrea, W.P. Falcon, and R.L. Naylor, 2008: Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science, 319, 607-610, DOI: 10.1126/science.1152339.

Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some
crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions
was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate
projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern
Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative
impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also
find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes
of investment institutions.

Last Updated: 2008-02-06

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