PCMDI

CAPT

Cloud Feedbacks

CMIP5

CMIP3

Other MIPs

Software

Publications

Google Calendar

Lab Calendar


Site Map

UCRL-WEB-152471

Privacy & Legal Notice

Thanks to Our Sponsors:

PCMDI > WCRP CMIP3 Model Output > Diagnostic Subprojects Printer Friendly Version
 
<< Back to WCRP CMIP3 Subprojects

  • Bitz, C.M., 2008: Some aspects of uncertainty in predicting sea ice thinning. AGU momograph. In press.

A high proportion of the uncertainty in the decline of Arctic sea
ice thickness in recent global climate models can be explained by
the uncertainty in the ice thickness in the late 20th century.
Experiments with one model indicate that this sensitivity to the
mean state remains even when ice-albedo feedback is eliminated from
the model. The magnitude of ice-albedo feedback is quantified and
found to be too small to be a major source of uncertainty in
thickness decline in climate models. Instead it is shown that the
sea ice growth-thickness feedback in combination with large biases
in the sea ice thickness during the 20th century can easily give
rise to very large uncertainty in future thickness decline.
Reducing biases in the surface fluxes and better tuning the surface
albedo would improve uncertainty in both present and future
prediction.


Full Article: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~bitz/Bitz_2008.pdf

Last Updated: 2008-08-21

<< Back to WCRP CMIP3 Subprojects
 
For questions or comments regarding this website, please contact the Webmaster.
 
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  |  Physical & Life Sciences Directorate