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  • Sabade SS, Kulkarni A, Kripalani RH, Projected Changes in South Asian Summer Monsoon by Multi-Model Global Warming Experiments. J Climate. Submitted.

South Asian summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall simulation and its potential future changes are evaluated in a multi-model ensemble of global coupled climate models outputs under World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP CMIP3) data set. The projections are examined for two time slices , middle (2031-2050) and end of the 21st century (2081-2100) in the experiments with Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 . with respect to the 20 years 1981-2000 of present climate (20c3m). Out of 23 coupled models 10 models simulate the spatio-temporal characteristics of seasonal mean monsoon rainfall reasonably well, though almost all models underestimate the seasonal rainfall. The simulated time series for the ten models have mean rainfall from 504 mm to 869 mm and CV 7-13%. All these models capture the biennial tendency and the time series are free from long-term trend.
Output of these selected 10 models have been analyzed to study future projections. The multi-model ensemble of these 10 models project 10-20% increase in monsoon precipitation over equatorial Indian Ocean and North-western parts of India and 20-30% over Pakistan, west Asian region in the middle of the century At the end of the century the increase is significant over the entire land region. Surface temperature in May projects a cooling over monsoon trough region in experiment A2 and a significant rise over remaining parts. The monsoon circulation is projected to weaken in next century. The Eurasian winter snowfall is projected to decrease (increase) over western (eastern) Eurasia , strengthening the dipole configuration over Eurasia which is conducive for good monsoon over India. Also the increase in precipitation may be attributed to the substantial increase in water vapor content in the next century.

Last Updated: 2008-08-22

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