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  • Bombardi, R. J., and L. M. V. Carvalho, 2009: IPCC Global coupled climate model simulations of the South America Monsoon System. Climate Dynamics, 33, 893-916, 10.1007/s00382-008-0488-1.

This study examines the variability of the South America Monsoon System (SAMS) over tropical South America. The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) from 1979-2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics are examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the 20th century (1981-2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081-2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest South America. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the 20th century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and Northeast Brazil are observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MIROC3.2-hires shows the most realistic representation of SAMSís characteristics. On the other hand, MPI_ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 fail in reproducing similar features. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.


Full Article: http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/clivac/publications.htm

Last Updated: 2010-07-23

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