Determining how El Niño and its impacts may change over the next ten to hundred years remains a difficult scientific challenge. Ocean-atmosphere Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) are routinely used both to analyze El Niño mechanisms and teleconnections and to predict its evolution on a broad range of timescales, from seasonal to centennial. The ability to simulate El Niño as an emergent property of these models has largely improved over the last few years. Nevertheless, the diversity of model simulations of present-day El Niño indicate current limitations in our ability to model this climate phenomenon and anticipate changes in its characteristics. A review of the several factors that contribute to this diversity, as well as potential means to improve the simulation of El Niño, is presented.

Last Updated: 2008-10-02