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  • Lin, J. L., T. Qian, T. Shinoda, W. Han, P. Roundy, and Y. Zheng, 2010: Intraseasonal Variation of Precipitation over the Western United States Simulated by 14 IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs. J. Climate, 23, 3094-3119.

This study evaluates the intraseasonal variation of winter precipitation over the western United States in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of each modelís 20th century climate simulation are analyzed. We focus on the two dominant intraseasonal modes for the western U.S. precipitation: the 40-day mode and the 22-day mode. The results show that all models simulate realistic or overly large intraseasonal variability in western United States wintertime precipitation, which is in sharp contrast with the inability of many of these models to reproduce tropical intraseasonal variability. For northern winter (November-April), all 14 models simulate realistic or overly large seasonal mean precipitation and total intraseasonal (10-90 day) variance over the western United States and Canada. They all capture both the 40-day mode and the 22-day mode. They also produce realistic or overly large variance of the 40-day mode, and reproduce its deep barotropic vertical structure and three-cell horizontal structure. However, only four of the 14 models capture the northward propagation of the 40-day mode, and only two models simulate its teleconnection with the Madden-Julian Oscillation in tropical Pacific. All models produce realistic or overly large variance of the 22-day mode. Eight of the 14 models reproduce its coherent northward propagation, and nine models capture its teleconnection with precipitation around 15N210E.


Last Updated: 2010-06-04

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