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PCMDI > WCRP CMIP3 Model Output > Diagnostic Subprojects Printer Friendly Version
 
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  • Hanssen-Bauer I., Achberger C., Benestad R.E., Chen D., Førland E.J, 2005: Statistical downscaling of climate scenarios over Scandinavia: A review. Clim. Res, 29, 255-268.

Studies from recent years involving development and application of statistical downscaling
models for Scandinavia (mainly Norway and Sweden) are reviewed. In most of the studies linear
techniques were applied. Local temperature and/or precipitation were predictands in a majority
of the studies. Large-scale temperature fields, either from 2 m or 850 hPa, were found to be the best
predictors for local temperature, while a combination of atmospheric circulation indices and tropospheric
humidity information were the best predictors for local precipitation. Statistically downscaled
temperature scenarios for Scandinavia differ depending on climate model, emission scenario and
downscaling strategy. There are nevertheless several common features in the temperature scenarios.
The warming rates during the 21st century are projected to increase with distance from the coast and
with latitude. In most of Scandinavia higher warming rates are projected in winter than in summer.
For precipitation, the spread between different scenarios is larger than for temperature. A substantial
part of the projected precipitation change is connected to projected changes in atmospheric circulation,
which differ considerably from one model integration to another. A tendency for increased
large-scale humidity over Scandinavia still implies that projections for the 21st century typically indicate
increased annual precipitation. This tendency is most significant during winter. In northern
Scandinavia the projections tend to show increased precipitation also during summer, but several
scenarios show reduced summer precipitation in parts of southern Scandinavia. Comparisons with
results from global and regional climate models indicate that both regional modeling and statistical
downscaling add value to the results from the global models.


Full Article: http://www.gvc2.gu.se/ngeo/deliang/inger05.pdf

Last Updated: 2011-01-18

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