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  • Philip, S.Y., and G.J. Van Oldenborgh, 2006: Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming. GRL, 33, L11704, doi:10.1029/2006GL026196.

Global warming may shift the properties and dynamics of El Niño. We study the shifts in ENSO couplings in IPCC-AR4 coupled general circulation climate models.
First, we compare period, pattern, amplitude and mean state
of the Pacific Ocean between the current climate and a high CO2 climate.
Next, shifts in ENSO couplings between sea surface temperature (SST),
thermocline depth and wind stress are discussed.
Although the mean state shifts, the overall ENSO
properties do not change much. Changes in the mean
state affect the feedback loop. Higher mean SST provides higher damping
through higher cloud feedback. The shallower thermocline and mixed layer depth increase SST
sensitivity to thermocline variability and wind stress. Wind response to SST
variability increases where the mean SST has increased the most. However,
the higher damping and more stable atmosphere compensate the other changes and the residual change in
ENSO properties is relatively small.


Full Article: http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0611/2006GL026196/2006GL026196.pdf

Last Updated: 2006-06-09

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