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  • Arzel, O., T. Fichefet and H. Goosse, 2006: Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs. Ocean Modelling, 12, 401-415.

Outputs from simulations performed with current atmosphere-ocean
general circulation models for the Fourth Assessment Report of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) are used to
investigate the evolution of sea ice over the 20th and 21st
centuries. We first use the results from the ``Climate of the 20th
Century Experiment'' to assess the ability of these models to
reproduce the observed sea ice cover changes over the periods
1981-2000 and 1951-2000. The projected sea ice changes over the 21st
century in response to the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios
A1B are then examined. Overall, there is a large uncertainty in
simulating the present-day sea ice coverage and thickness and in
predicting sea ice changes in both hemispheres. Over the period
1981-2000, we find that the multimodel average sea ice extent agrees
reasonably well with observations in both hemipsheres despite the wide
differces between the models. The largest uncertainties appear in the
Southern Hemisphere. The climate change projections over the 21st
century reveal that the annual mean sea ice extent decreases at
similar rates in both hemispheres, and that the reduction in annual
mean sea ice volume is about twice that of sea ice extent reduction in
the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with earlier studies. We show
that the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of sea ice extent increases
in both hemispheres in a warming climate, with a larger magnitude in
the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, it appears that the seasonal
cycle of ice extent is more affected than the one of ice volume. By
the end of the 21st century, half of the model population displays an
ice-free Arctic Ocean in late summer.

Full Article: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MImg&_imagekey=B6VPS-4H2FWYF-1-C&_cdi=6214&_user=10&_orig=browse&_coverDate=12%2F31%2F2006&_sk=999879996&view=c&wchp=dGLbVtz-zSkzV&md5=ba37d594d222e6514e3b4d1578502d0d&ie=/sdarticle.pdf

Last Updated: 2006-03-03

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