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  • Takle, E. S., M. Jha, and C. J. Anderson, 2005: Hydrological cycle in the upper Mississippi River basin: 20th century simulations using multiple GCMs. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, doi:10.1029/2005GL023630.

We used 20th century simulations by nine global climate models (GCMs) to provide input for a streamflow model to simulate baseline hydrologic conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Statistical tests revealed that streamflow data produced by members of the GCM multi-model ensemble were serially uncorrelated at all lags and formed unimodal distributions and that GCM multi-model results may be used to assess annual streamflow and hydrological components simulated by the streamflow model in the UMRB. Although all low-resolution GCMs produced large differences from observations of streamflow and hydrological components simulated by the streamflow model, the nine-member ensemble performed quite well. Results of statistical tests indicate that, of all models used, the high-resolution GCM - the only high-resolution model tested - gives simulated streamflows much closer to observed values, despite the fact that its low-resolution sister model has no advantage over the other seven low-resolution models.

Last Updated: 2006-03-07

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