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  • Hayhoe, K., Wake, C., Huntington, T., Luo, L., Schwartz, M.D., Sheffield, J., Wood, E., Anderson, B., Bradbury, J., DeGaetano, A., Troy, T.J and Wolfe, D., 2007: Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the U.S. Northeast. Climate Dynamics, 28, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0187-8.

Assessing the potential impacts of global climate change on a specific region requires integrating projected changes with the unique regional characteristics that will affect and modify those changes at the regional scale. Focusing on key climate indicators in the U.S. Northeast, we assess the extent to which multiple simulations of 20th century climate from 9 AR4 AOGCMs are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators, and evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change. The analysis encompasses a range of climate indicators that characterize the region, including heavy rainfall and drought, the depth and extent of snow cover, soil moisture, and streamflow in unmanaged rivers, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on accumulated temperature and precipitation, such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices. Projected changes in almost all of the temperature-related climate indicators all show signals consistent with warming temperatures across both observations and a broad range of past and future model simulations. In the future, model simulations indicate significantly larger increases under the SRES mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) as compared to the lower (B1) emissions scenario. These findings highlight the on-going influence of climate change on a wide range of regional indicators, providing confidence regarding the direction, and guidance regarding the magnitude, of many regional climate trends, many of which appear to depend fundamentally upon the emission pathways followed over the next century.

Full Article: http://www.springerlink.com/content/b5746164l0t21l42/?p=f19f79fe5f0c4bb1b178a2e80084aee6&pi=2

Last Updated: 2007-12-20

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