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  • Carril A. F., C. G. Menéndez and A. Navarra, 2005: "Climate response associated with the Southern Annular Mode in the surroundings of Antarctic Peninsula: A multimodel ensemble analysis". Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, doi:10.1029/2005GL023581.

This paper is an attempt to extract an average picture of
the response of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to
increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) forcing from a
multimodel ensemble of simulations conducted in the
framework of the IPCC 4th assessment experiments. Our
analysis confirms that the climate change signal in the midto
high southern latitudes projects strongly into the positive
phase (PP) of the SAM. Over the present climate time slice
(1970–1999), multimodel ensemble mean reproduce the
regional warming around the Antarctic Peninsula (AP)
associated with the SAM. When increasing GHG (future
time slice, 2070–2099), warming in the neighborhoods
of the AP and decreasing sea-ice volume in the sea-ice
edge region in the Amundsen and Weddell Seas
intensifies, suggesting that recent observed sea-ice
trends around AP could be associated to anthropogenic
forcings. Changes in surface temperature and sea-ice are
consistent with anomalous atmospheric heat transport
associated with circulation anomalies.


Last Updated: 2006-03-10

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