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  • Pryor S.C., Schoof J.T. and Barthelmie R.J., 2005: Potential climate change impacts on wind speeds and wind energy density in northern Europe: Results from empirical downscaling of multiple AOGCMs. Climate Research, 29, 183-198.

We present empirical downscaling of five state-of-the-art AOGCMs to investigate potential changes in wind speeds and energy density in northern Europe. The approach is based on downscaling of the Weibull parameters of the wind speed probability distribution from AOGCM derived 500 hPa and relative vorticity sea-level pressure gradients, and is demonstrated to generate accurate depictions of the wind climate during the transfer function conditioning period. Bootstrapping is used to develop 100 realizations for each downscaling period which are used to assess the uncertainty in the results due to stochastic effects in the AOGCM derived downscaling predictors. Projected changes in the wind speed probability distribution vary with the AOGCMs from which the predictors are derived, but generally it is shown that in the 2081-2100 climate projection period, mean wind speeds, 90th percentile wind speeds and energy density are slightly lower than during 1961-1990 at the majority of the 46 stations studied. Conversely it is found that there is no significant difference between conditions during 2046-2065 and 1961-1990 based on the ensemble of downscaling results. Equally, the winter time of 2046-2065 is largely indistinguishable from 1961-1990 for the majority of stations, while the winters of 2081-2100 appear to be associated with lower mean and 90th percentile wind speeds and energy density.

Last Updated: 2006-03-10

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