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PCMDI > WCRP CMIP3 Model Output > Diagnostic Subprojects Printer Friendly Version
 
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  • Gillett, N. P., 2005: Northern Hemisphere circulation. Nature, 437, 496.

Air pressure at sea level during winter has
decreased over the Arctic and increased in the
Northern Hemisphere subtropics in recent
decades, a change that has been associated
with 50% of the Eurasian winter warming
observed over the past 30 years, with 60%
of the rainfall increase in Scotland and with
60% of the rainfall decrease in Spain. This
trend is inconsistent with the simulated
response to greenhouse-gas and sulphateaerosol
changes, but it has been proposed
that other climate influences such as ozone
depletion could account for the discrepancy3.
Here I compare observed Northern
Hemisphere sea-level pressure trends with
those simulated in response to all the major
human and natural climate influences in nine
state-of-the-art coupled climate models over
the past 50 years. I find that these models all
underestimate the circulation trend. This
inconsistency suggests that we cannot yet simulate
changes in this important property of the
climate system or accurately predict regional
climate changes.


Full Article: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~nathan/pdf/437496a.pdf

Last Updated: 2006-03-21

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