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Simulated Changes in Asian Monsoon Precipitation: 20th through 22nd Century Climate

PI: R.H. Kripalani
Institution: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Additional Investigators: Ashwini Kulkarni, SS Sabade
Abstract:
The participants have done considerable work on the summer monsoon rainfall variability over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Extensive data sets have been used for periods varying from 1870 to 2000. The variability has been examined in relation to the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon (Weather 1997: 39-46 ; Int J Climatol 1997: 1155-1168 ; Theo Appl Climatol 1998:1-11 ; Int J Climatol 2001:603-616), Eurasian snow cover (Clim Dyn 1999: 475-489 ; Int J Climatol 2002: 1313-1325; Theo Appl Climatol 2003: 1-18), Global Warming (Natural Hazards 2003: 189-206) and the recently identified Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (Int J Climatol 2004: 1267-1282). All these studies have shown that with the analysis of available instrumental historical and other data sets, some valuable scientific insight can be gained on the Asian monsoons on inter-annual and decadal time scales. A few of the important results of these studies are as follows:

* The short-term climate variability over these regions depicts decadal variability with certain epochs of above and below normal rainfall. While the epochs tend to last for three decades over South and East Asia, they last for about a decade over the equatorial regions of Southeast Asia. Further the turning points over East Asia follow those of South Asia about a decade later.

* Impact of ENSO events on summer monsoon rainfall is modulated by the decadal behavior of rainfall ie impact of El Nino (La Nina) is more severe during the below (above) normal epochs. Thus impact depends on the prevailing epoch.

* The inter-connections between the monsoon-related events (rainfall over South Asia, rainfall over East Asia, northern hemisphere circulation, tropical Pacific circulation) appear to strengthen (or weaken) around the same time, for example the relationship among these events during 1890-1930 was weak while during 1930-1970 it was strong. Thus monsoon related events over geographically separated regions seem to get linked (or de-linked) around the same time periods.

Objectives of the analysis:

(i) To prepare regional summer monsoon rainfall time series over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia from 20th through 22nd century
(ii) To examine inter-annual and decadal variability, long-term trends, short-term climate variability and other statistical properties of these three regional rainfall series
(iii) To prepare indices of the northern hemisphere mid-latitude (in particular over Eurasia) circulation and the Pacific circulation
(iv) To examine the relationship of these circulation indices with the regional rainfall series vis--vis the above results and to determine whether anthropogenic climate change has any role to play in these changing relationships.
(v) Compare the model-simulated results with the observed variability during the 20th century.

This group has been extensively using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data sets, GrADS Graphics software and advanced statistical/mathematical techniques, hence expertise to analyze, interpret the multi-model data sets and computer facilities are available with this group at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
Publications:
  • Kripalani, R.H., Ashwini Kulkarni, and S.S. Sabade, 2005: South Asian monsoon precipitation variability: Coupled climate model projections under IPCC AR4. CLIVAR Exchanges, 10(3), 13-15. Abstract. Edit.
  • Kripalani, R.H., J.H. Oh, Ashwini Kulkarni, S.S.Sabade and H.S. Chaudhari, 2007: South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: Coupled Climate simulations and projections under IPCC AR4. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 90, 133-159, DOI 10.1007/s00704-006-0282-0. Abstract. Edit.
  • Kripalani, R.H., J.H. Oh, H.S. Chaudhari, 2007: Response of the East Asian summer monsoon to doubled atmospheric CO2: Coupled Climate Models simulations and Projections under IPCC AR4. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 87, 1-28, DOI 10.1007/s00704-006-0238-4. Abstract. Edit.
  • Sabade SS, Ashwini Kulkarni and RH Kripalani, 2010: Projected Changes in South Asian Summer Monsoon by Multi-model Global Warming Experiments. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI 10.1007/s00704-010-0296-5. Abstract. Edit.

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