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Hydrological cycle over Northern Eurasia in the 20th and 21st centuries

PI: Vladimir Kattsov
Institution: Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory
Components of the hydrological cycle over major river watersheds in Northern Eurasia (NEA) as simulated by the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble will be considered. In this study, the NEA region includes (1) catchments of the russian rivers draining into the Arctic Ocean, (3) the terrestrial watershed of the Baltic sea including scandinavian rivers, and (3) the terrestrail watersheds of the Black, Caspian and Azov seas. Routinely, the analysis will start with evaluation of the model simulations of precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, snow cover, etc. for the baseline climate. It will include both monthly and daily outputs. The next step will be an evaluation of the model performance in simulating the hidrological cycle components through the 20th century. Projections of the hydrological cycle component changes in NEA for the 21st century and the associated uncertainties will receive the central attention in this study. In addition to estimation of reproduced and projected changes in the multiyear means of the above variables, a particular attention will be given to changes in variability at different time scales, including changes of seasonality, as well as changes in extreme events and their frequency of occurrence (e.g. heavy precipitation, floods, droughts, etc.).
  • Kattsov, V.M., J. E. Walsh,W.L. Chapman, V. A. Govorkova, T.V. Pavlova, and X. Zhang, 2007: Simulation and Projection of Arctic Freshwater Budget Components by the IPCC AR4 Global Climate Models. J. Hydrometeorology, 8, 571-589. Abstract. Edit.
  • Kattsov, V.M., P.V. Sporyshev, 2006: Timing of global warming in IPCC AR4 AOGCM simulations.. Geophys. Res. Letters, 33, L23707, 10.1029.2006GL027476. Abstract. Edit.
  • Sporyshev, P.V., and V.M. Kattsov, 2006: Spatiotemporal features of global warming. Doklady Earth Sciences, 410, 1160-1165, 10.1134/S1028334X06070361. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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