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Variations in the polar vortex during the 20th and 21st centuries
| PI: |
Eugene C. Cordero |
| Institution: |
San Jose State University |
| Additional Investigators: |
Chakkrit Reamruk |
| Abstract: |
| The analysis will focus on examining the evolution and variability of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere polar vortex for both present and future CO2 levels. The primary objective of this work is to evaluate how changes in wave variability associated with various CO2 forcing scenarios affect the stratospheric polar vortex in today's coupled climate models. The questions to be addressed include how the polar vortex will change in the next century and if there a consensus among models as to the structure of these changes. This work will also investigate how changes in the vortex will affect the troposphere through changes the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Recent studies suggest that the stratosphere may directly and/or indirectly influence tropospheric climate through the AO, and thus changes to the tropospheric wave spectrum may influence stratospheric circulation and indirectly tropospheric climate. The relationships between meridional temperature gradients and large scale wave amplitudes will also be characterized in the model simulations to evaluate connections between surface warming and stratospheric circulation The analysis will use a variety of diagnostics including EOFs and Fourier decomposition. These investigations will be completed by Dr. Cordero and his graduate students at San Jose State University. The model data required to complete this study include the following atmospheric variables. Monthly averaged, east wind, north wind, omega (vertical wind), temperature and geopotential height at standard pressure levels up to 10hPa. Simulations with higher altitude data will compared as a subgroup to compare with simulations that have a lower altitude (~10hPa) top boundary. |
| Publications: |
- Cordero, E. C. and P. M. de F. Forster, 2006: Stratospheric variability and trends in models used for the IPCC AR4. Atmos. Chem. and Phys., 6, 5369–5380. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
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