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PCMDI > WCRP CMIP3 Model Output > Diagnostic Subprojects Printer Friendly Version
 
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GOFA FCST

PI: Auad Guillermo
Institution: SIO
Abstract:
South America has always based a vast portion of its overall economy and well being on agriculture and livestock. From the Colombian coffee in the north, to the vast and highly productive Argentinean pampas in the south, from the Brazilian plantations on the east, to the Chilean vineyards in the west, this continentís economy, its exports to the US and Europe included, is very sensitive to weather fluctuations. Droughts in particular are any farmerís worst nightmare. A comprehensive study will be carried out in order to assess drought sensitivities to different oceanic and atmospheric variables. Since droughts can hit on different seasons, a discriminative, detailed analysis will be carried out. I will address how different regions, at different times of the year, are sensitive to different variables (or functions of them), in both the tropics and extratropics and using data from the SMIP and CMIP programs. Once those drought sensitivities are identified, several statistical forecast models for South American droughts will be constructed and an actual forecast will be issued for 2008-2009. In order to analyze these data and forecast droughts, I will use both standard and complex decomposition of covariance matrixes into their singular values and vectors (i.e., SVD analysis).
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