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Interanual and interdecadal variations of the North American Monsoon through the 21st century climate

PI: Martin J. Montero-Martinez
Institution: Mexican Institute of Water Technology
Additional Investigators: Toru Nozawa
Abstract:
The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) is currently being carried on and we certainly increase of knowledge about it in the years to come. Dr. Lobato is currently a PI of the NAME science working group. The main goal here is to determine what possible changes in the interannual and interdecadal variations of the North American Monsoon would occur in the 21st century under various climatic scenarios.

Recently, Higgins et al. (1998) demonstrated that interannual variability of the continental-scale precipitation pattern closely imitates the seasonal changes associated with the development of the North American Monsoon System (NAMS). It is important to determine to what extent this pattern is captured in coupled GCMs. On the other hand, recent coupled GCM and observational studies (e.g. Latif and Barnett 1994; 1996) have implicated Namiasís hypothesis in the decadal variability of the North Pacific-North American sector. Namias argued that SSTA in the North Pacific influence the atmospheric transients, hence the mean westerly flow in such a way as to reinforce the original SSTA.

Model Data Required: Precipitation, surface temperature, pressure, wind, geopotential height, radiation fields, and cloudiness monthly data of the following products:

1. 20th century simulation to year 2000, then fix all concentrations at year 2000 values and run to 2100 (CO2 ~ 360ppm).

2. 21st century simulation with SRES A1B to 2100, then fix all concentrations at year 2100 values to 2200 (CO2 ~ 720ppm)  we require just up to 2100.

3. 21st century simulation with SRES B1 to 2100, then fix all concentrations at year 2100 values to 2200 (CO2 ~ 550ppm)  we require just up to 2100.

4. 21st century simulation with SRES A2 to 2100.

6. 100 year (minimum) control run including same time period as in 1 above.
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