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Climate trends over tropical areas

PI: Robinson Juarez
Institution: Georgia Institute of Technology
Abstract:
The projected future global atmospheric CO2 increase strongly depends on the stability of the tropical rainforests, which in turn is influenced by changes of the hydrological cycle over tropical land. The latter, however, is highly uncertain among current climate models, especially over the Amazon and equatorial Africa.

Our results show that these models predict very different changes of rainfall over the Amazon under the SRES A1B scenario for global climate change. Almost all the models underestimate the dry season rainfall amount and the climate variability of rainfall in the 20th century. The predicted changes in the future by these models are mainly determined by projected change of SSTs.

Through a comparison of observed and modeled data we plan to determine changes in climate trends due to anthropogenic activities. To understand the observed changes in models outputs we will compare them with CMIP output with no anthropogenic perturbations.

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