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Sensitivity of South American Monsoon-related Features to Anthropogenic Changes in Radiative Forcing

PI: Anji Seth
Institution: Columbia University
Additional Investigators: Maisa Rojas, Sara Rauscher
Abstract:
Our objective is to understand how anthropogenic changes in radiative forcing translate from the large scale atmosphere and ocean to regional mechanisms associated with monsoon rainfall. We plan to analyze the simulated present day and future relationships between summertime subtropical anticyclones in the Atlantic and Pacific, moisture transport, and continental warm season rainfall , with a focus on the South American sector. For this analysis we will obtain data from the 20th Century, committed climate change, and SRES A2 experiments from the coupled models. The data required include (from Table A1a,b,c) monthly mean sea level pressure and precipitation, surface air temperature, surface altitude, eastward and northward winds at 925, 850, 500, and 250 HPa, 500 HPa geopotential height, and omega, (from Table O1c) sea surface temperature, (from Table A2a,b) daily mean sea level pressure, precipitation, 3-d eastward and northward winds, and 3-d specific humidity. The daily mean fields will permit an estimation of moisture fluxes over the continent. Additional fields such as surface sensible and latent heat fluxes and soil moisture ( surface and total) may be used to explore mechanisms as needed. We will evaluate the present day results against observed estimates (from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, CMAP, Reynolds SST) and use them as a baseline for comparison with the committed climate change and SRES A2 scenarios.
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