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Changes in Australian Climate Variability

PI: Simon Grainger
Institution: Bureau of Meterology, Australia
Abstract:
The seasonal mean of a climate variable can be considered as a statistical random variable, with "signal", or potentially predictable and "noise", or chaotic, components. A technique has been developed to estimate these components using monthly mean data.

This project will use data from the CMIP3 archive to examine changes in the modelled potentially predictable and chaotic components of variability between the 20th Century and in the 21st Century under the SRES emission scenarios. This will first be looked at in the atmospheric circulation as indicated by the 500hPa Geopotential height, with emphasis on changes in Southern Hemisphere variability. The impact of the modelled changes in circulation variability on surface variability in the Australian region will then be examined, with emphasis on surface temperature and precipitation.
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