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Global Warming Patterns Over the North Pacific: ENSO Versus AO

PI: Kazuki Yamaguchi
Institution: Tokyo Electric Power Co.
Additional Investigators: Akira Noda, Sachiko Yamaki
Abstract:
The proposed subproject is an extension of our work on natural variability and CO2-induced response patterns over the North Pacific in CGCMs. In our previous study, relationships between natural variability and CO2-induced response, in terms of the spatial pattern of Pacific surface field variables was investigated by a systematic intercomparison analysis of output from various coupled GCMs (Noda et al. 1999). The results have offered evidence that the CO2-induced response pattern is closely related to the model natural variability, though the selection of mode and polarity referring to the natural variability is not deterministic among the models. Several models indicate a response pattern projected on the spatial structure of the ENSO (El Nino-like or La Nina-like) that is the leading mode of natural variability, while others indicate a response pattern projected on those of higher modes. A similar analysis of wintertime field variables in the Northern Hemisphere has confirmed the relationship (Noda & Yamaguchi 2001). Several models indicate a response pattern projected on the spatial structure of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) that is the leading mode of natural variability, while other models indicate a response pattern projected on those of higher modes. Moreover, the analysis relating both regions has suggested that the effects of ENSO and AO upon the response pattern overlap over the North Pacific; the balance of domination between ENSO and AO in this region plays a key role for the entire response pattern in determining the selection of mode and polarity referring to the natural variabilities. In this early study, we had to use the limited types of surface atmospheric data available. Therefore, it is highly desirable that we be allowed to use the newer and more extensive collection of PCMDI data to confirm and extend our previous study.
Publications:
  • Yamaguchi, K., and A. Noda, 2006: Global Warming Patterns over the North Pacific: ENSO versus AO. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 221-241, doi:10.2151/jmsj.84.221. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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