 |
<< Back to WCRP CMIP3 Subprojects
Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the Arctic and Antarctic over the 21st century
| PI: |
John Cassano |
| Institution: |
University of Colorado |
| Abstract: |
We propose to analyze changes in synoptic weather patterns
in the Arctic and Antarctic over the 21st century using a
synoptic pattern classification technique based on self-organizing
maps. We have conducted a similar analysis of changes in
synoptic patterns near the North Slope of Alaska for the latter part
of the 20th century, and feel that this analysis technique would
prove useful in assessing future climate change scenarios and
the impacts of possible changes in the climate. The results of this
analysis will be the identification of the primary synoptic weather
patterns (we will identify up to 30 synoptic weather patterns
based on sea-level pressure fields over pan-Arctic and a
pan-Antarctic analysis domains) for three time periods (1991-2000,
2046-2055, and 2091-2100), and to determine changes in the
frequency of occurrence of the different synoptic weather patterns
based on the future climate predictions. A key result from the
analysis will be the identification and characterization of extreme
cyclones as they are represented in the models and in contemporary
analyses. This work will be completed by the Polar Climate and
Meteorology Group at the University of Colorado, led by John
Cassano, and by Amanda Lynch’s research group at Monash
University, Melbourne, Australia. The primary data required for this
analysis will be daily mean sea-level pressure data for the decades
1991-2000, 2046-2055, and 2091-2100. Additional daily mean
data that would be beneficial for this analysis would include daily
mean precipitation rate and 2-m air temperature. |
| Publications: |
- Cassano, J.J., P. Uotila, A.H. Lynch, and E.N. Cassano, Predicted changes in synoptic forcing of net precipitation in large Arctic river basins during the 21st century. J Geophys Res. In press. Abstract. Edit.
- Cassano, J.J., P. Uotila, and A.H. Lynch, 2006: Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the 20th and 21st centuries, Part 1: Arctic. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1029/joc.1306. Abstract. Edit.
- Lynch, A.H., P. Uotila, and J.J. Cassano, 2006: Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the 20th and 21st centuries, Part 2: Antarctic. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1029/joc.1305. Abstract. Edit.
- Uotila, P, A.H. Lynch, J.J. Cassano, and R.I. Cullather, Changes in Antarctic net precipitation in the 21st century based on IPCC model scenarios. J Geophys Res. In press. Abstract. Edit.
Add Publication
|
<< Back to WCRP CMIP3 Subprojects
|
|
