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Climate Change over Hawaiian Islands

PI: Oliver Timm
Institution: IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii
Abstract:
The center of this study is to downscale the large-scale climate variability of the AR4 scenario runs onto regional climate of the Hawaiian Islands. Statistical methods such as SVD/CCA analysis will be used to find relations between rainfall and temperature on regional scale and the dynamical and thermodynamical large-scale pattern. Reanalysis data will be used for this purpose. Then, the derived SVD/CCA pattern are used to project the climate change scenarios and estimate the regional impacts.

This study is a case study in which we want to show the potential skill of such statistical downscaling techniques. For example there is a significant realtion between regional rainfall and ENSO, PDO. We have to take into account not only the statistical errors but also the uncertainty in the GCM ensembles.
Publications:
  • Timm, O., and H. F. Diaz, 2009: Synoptic-Statistical Approach to Regional Downscaling of IPCC 21st Century Climate Projections: Seasonal Rainfall over the Hawaiian Islands. J. Climate, 22, 42614280, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2833.1. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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