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Evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning (AMO) during the coming centuries

PI: Andreas Schmittner
Institution: Institut fuer Geowissenschaften, Universitaet Kiel
Additional Investigators: Mojib Latif, Frank Koesters
In the last IPCC report the reported projections of the AMO were showing a large scatter ranging from no change to a massive decline. We propose not only to repeat the compilation of the AMO projections from the different models, but also to perform additional analysis in order to possibly understand the reasons for the different responses. Therefore, we will analyze the freshwater budget of the Atlantic, sea surface temperatures and salinities and, if possible, sea ice and wind stress. We will apply the analysis both to the projections of the 20th and 21st centuries as well as for the long runs into the 22nd and 23rd centuries. The analysis will be performed by A. Schmittner in close cooperation with M. Latif. Both have extensive experience and a published track record (examples of relevant publications are given below) in the study of the AMO. Computer facilities (10 CPU linux cluster, 1.2 TB memory) and software tools (e.g. ferret) are available at Kiel.
  • Schmittner, A., M. Latif, and B. Schneider, 2005: Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, 1-4, 10.1029/2005GL024368. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Schneider, B., M. Latif, and A. Schmittner, 2007: Evaluation of different methods to assess model projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. J. Climate, 20, 2121-2132. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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