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Circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere and impacts on Australasian climate

PI: Jozef Syktus
Institution: Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines
Additional Investigators: Steve Crimp
Abstract:
The increasing atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and declining concentration of stratospheric ozone has been linked, through modification of radiative forcing, to changes in the polarity of Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in recent decades. These large-scale changes in the SAM have also been linked to drying trends in eastern Australia and positive rainfall anomalies in NW Australia in observed rainfall.

Using data from the climate change simulations for the IPCC AR4 we propose to:

* evaluate how well the Southern Annular Mode is simulated by the range of climate models used to develop the AR4 suite.

* compare the resultant evaluation with model simulations from the Climate of 20th Century Project (grads.iges.org/c20c) and observational data.

* assess the projected changes in the SAM during the transient and stabilization forcing from a range of coupled models.

* evaluate regional teleconnections between projected changes in SAM and regional impacts on seasonal rainfall in the Australasian region.
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