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Storm tracks and modes of climate variability

PI: Jeffrey Yin
Institution: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Abstract:
I propose an analysis of the storm tracks, and their relationship to modes of climate variability and changes in the mean state, in the IPCC climate change experiments. The analysis would be performed by me, Jeffrey Yin, in collaboration with Jim Hurrell. The objectives of this analysis are:
1) to document the changes in the storm tracks, as measured by 2-10 day 200 mb eddy kinetic energy and meridional momentum flux and 850 mb meridional temperature flux, from the preindustrial control to the 20th century and during the SRES A1B scenario in each model, and to compare the 20th century storm tracks to those in the NCEP/NCAR and ERA40 reanalyses;

2) to examine the preindustrial and 20th century relationships between the dominant modes of climate variability (ENSO, PNA, NAO/NAM, SAM) and the storm tracks in each model, and compare these present-day relationships to those observed in the NCEP/NCAR and ERA40 reanalyses;

3) to identify connections between the changes in the mean state simulated by each model in the SRES A1B scenario and the characteristics of its modes of climate variability and storm tracks; and

4) to evaluate the reliability of each model for simulating future climate change based on its ability to reproduce the observed modes of climate variability and storm tracks, and the degree to which they affect its simulations of climate change in the SRES A1B scenario.
Publications:
  • Yin, J.H., 2005: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701, doi:10.1029/2005GL023684. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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