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Quantification of uncertainty in the predictions of local impact of climate change

PI: Romain Laurent
Institution: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Additional Investigators: Ximing Cai
Abstract:
The ultimate objective of the study is to run impact models (e.g. hydraulic, agricultural models) under future climate conditions while taking account of the different sources of uncertainty of the climate projections. A main focus is the quantification of the model uncertainty, i.e. the uncertainty arising from the large range of projections given by different climate models. Data from the Working Group on Coupled Models will be needed in order to test and compare different methods of quantification of the model uncertainty. These methods include a method originally designed using information theoretic entropy. All the runs that allow us to compare the outcomes of different coupled models with common assumptions can be useful (e.g. the control run, the transient run for the 20th century).
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