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Changing Risk of Climate Extremes

PI: Antje Weisheimer
Institution: Free University Berlin
Additional Investigators: Tim Palmer
Abstract:
It is proposed to conduct a probabilistic analysis of the changing risk of very hot/cold and very wet/dry periods, using the CMIP3 integrations considered as a multi-model ensemble. From the 20th Century control integrations, monthly and seasonal probability distributions of precipitation and temperature will be estimated for each model and for each grid point around the globe. For each model and time of year, precip and temperature anomalies corresponding to specified expected return periods will be estimated. Hence, for example, the precip associated with a 50-year flood will be estimated for each model. Similar studies of drought, heat and cold wave frequency will be made. Using the multi-model ensemble around the time of CO_2 doubling, the probability of exceeding the thresholds of precip and temperatures corresponding to the prescribed return periods will be estimated.
Publications:
  • Palmer, T.N., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, and M. Rodwell, 2007: Towards Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate-Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts. BAMS. Submitted. Abstract. Edit.
  • Weisheimer, A., and T.N. Palmer, 2005: Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming.. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, doi:10.1029/2005GL023365. Abstract. Edit.

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