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Balance in models between the thermocline and local wind feedback loops in ENSO

PI: Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Institution: KNMI
Additional Investigators: Sjoukje Philip, Gerrit Burgers
Abstract:
We would like to perform analyses of ENSO in the IPCC climate models, both for the current and future climate. The object would be to investigate the balance in models between the thermocline and local wind feedback loops of the ENSO cycle in the current and future climates (Fedorov and Philander 2001, Burgers and van Oldenborgh 2002). This will be done by studying the properties of an ICM with parameters fitted to the GCM output: SST equation, statistical atmosphere and shallow water ocean model. We have just submitted a paper with a similar anlaysis of the CCSM 1.4 model (available from http://www.knmi.nl/~oldenbor).

The project requires monthly fields of zonal wind stress, heat fluxes, SST and Z20. If Z20 or another proxy for thermocline depth is not available the 3D ocean temperature fields of the upper 200m of the ocean (preferably on the original grid) are needed. The spatial extent should be the equatorial Indo-Pacifc (30E-90W, 15S-15N). We would analyse the coupled ocean-atmosphere models in the current climate, scenario runs and fixed doubled and quadrupled CO2.

http://www.knmi.nl/publications/abstract.php?id=649
Publications:
  • Philip, S.Y. and G.J. van Oldenborgh, Atmospheric properties and the ENSO cycle: models versus observations. Submitted. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Philip, S.Y., and G.J. Van Oldenborgh, 2006: Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming. GRL, 33, L11704, doi:10.1029/2006GL026196. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Sterl, A., G.J. van Oldenborgh, W. Hazeleger and G. Burgers, 2007: On the robustness of ENSO teleconnections. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0251-z. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Van Oldenborgh, G.J., and S.Y. Philip, and M. Collins, 2005: El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study.. Ocean Science, 1, 81-95, SREF:1812-0792/os/2005-1-81. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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