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PCMDI > WCRP CMIP3 Model Output > Diagnostic Subprojects Printer Friendly Version
 
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Analysis of extreme indices

PI: Matilde Rusticucci
Institution: Universidad de Buenos Aires
Additional Investigators: Olga Penalba, José Marengo, Madeleine Renom, Mario Núñez, Claudio Menéndez
Abstract:
It is recognized that the changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events are likely to have a larger impact than changes in mean climate. We propose to assess the likely changes in climate extremes over southern South America through the analysis of the indices described in Frich et al. (2002) evaluated from the IPCC standard data. These "extreme indices" are derived data, from simulated daily temperature and precipitation, in the form of annual indicator time series. An assessment of confidence in projected changes in extremes of weather and climate during the 21st century will be performed through their physical plausibility and inter-model consistency. Trends and interdecadal variability will be also examined.

Reference:
Frich P., et al., 2002: Observed coherent changes in climate extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research, 19, 193-212.

Simulations:
Pre-industrial control, 20C3M, SRES A2, SRES A1B

Data required:
Table A2a : pr, tasmin, tasmax
Table A4: fd, etr, gsl, hwdi, tn90, r10, cdd, r5d, sdii, r95t
Publications:
  • Rusticucci, M., J.Marengo, O.Penalba and M.Renom, 2006: COMPARISONS BETWEEN OBSERVED AND MODELED PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE EXTREMES IN SOUTH AMERICA DURING THE XX CENTURY (IPCC AR4 MODELS). 8th ICSHMO Proceedings of 8 ICSHMO, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, April 24-28, 2006, INPE, 379-389., ISBN 85-17-00023-4. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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