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Future evolution of the Asian Monsoon, the Eastern Mediterranean, the Levant region and the African Monsoon

PI: Baruch Ziv
Institution: Tel Aviv University, Israel
Abstract:
The Eastern Mediterranean (EM) is subjected in the summer season to two primary factors: mid- upper-level subsidence exerting warming and lower-level cool advection, associated with the Etesian winds. A closed circulation connects the EM with the Asian Monsoon, AM, (Rodwell and Hoskins, 1996), and a weaker one resembles a Hadley circulation across eastern North Africa (Ziv et al. 2004).
Air back-trajectories demonstrate that the EM is connected at the lower-troposphere with Europe, at the mid-troposphere with eastern North Africa and at the higher-troposphere with the AM (Ziv et al. 2004), who also found that the two competing dynamic factors are correlated with each other, and attributed this to the linkage between them and the AM. Accordingly, an intensification of the AM enhances both the subsidence, via the circulation connecting them, and the Etesian winds, due to the enhanced pressure gradient between the two regions. The above implies that the AM prevent each of this factor to dominate, so that it has a moderating effect on the EM summer regime.

Saaroni et al. (2003) found a significant warming, combined with intensification of extreme heat waves, over the EM along 1948-2003. This may indicate a possible disruption of the circulation connecting the AM with the EM, or change in the variability and intensity of the AM itself. This subject is being studied now for the past, i.e., 1948-2003 period.

The proposed research:
We would like to study the following subjects for the summer season (JJA), together with the adjacent months, i.e., April-October:
1. The future evolution of the Asian Monsoon: seasonality, intensity, variability and structure
2. The future relation between the AM and the subsidence over the Eastern Mediterranean
3. The same as in step 2, but for the summer temperature regime over the Levant region
4. Repeat the 3 steps above, but for the African Monsoon

References:
Rodwell M. J. and B. Hoskins, 1996: Monsoons and the dynamic of deserts, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 22, 1385-1404.
Saaroni, H., B. Ziv, J. Edelson and P. Alpert, 2003: Long-term Variations in Summer Temperatures over the Eastern Mediterranean, Geophys. Res. Letters 30(18), 1946, doi:10.1029/2003GL017742, 2003.
Ziv B., H. Saaroni and P. Alpert, 2004: The factors governing the summer regime of the eastern Mediterranean, Int. J. Clim. (in press).
Hadas Saaroni, Baruch Ziv
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