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Long-timescale potential predictability of an ensemble of models

PI: George Boer
Institution: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
We propose to follow the approach of Boer (2004) to estimate both the long-timescale potential predictability of the IPCC models but also the change in potential predictability under different warming scenarios. Since "potential predictability", as used here, is a measure of long timescale variability, the study is essentially an attempt to measure and to understand, in so far as possible with available data, changes to this long-timescale variability.

Data: (time series of monthly or annual gridded fields of)
- surface temperature
- radiative fluxes at the TOA and the surface
- evaporation, precipitation, sensible heat fluxes

Boer, G.J., 2004: Long timescale potential predictability in an
ensemble of coupled climate models, Clim. Dyn., in press.

Proponents: George Boer (possibly S. Kharin and/or S. Lambert)

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    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory  |  Physical & Life Sciences Directorate