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Annular modes and stratospheric connections among the 20th century IPCC simulations

PI: Ron Miller
Institution: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Abstract:
Annular modes make a significant contribution to extratropical climate variability at the surface. Forced changes to the annular modes in the coming century could have substantial regional impacts upon climate. We propose to diagnose annular mode variations for the period 1880-2000 as simulated by 4 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) whose forecast of 21st century climate will be included in the next assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). We will examine to what extent the simulated annular modes reproduce observed behavior, including spatial extent, decadal variability and trends, and linkage of surface and stratospheric variations. We will also examine the relation of the modes to forcing by volcanic aerosols and stratospheric ozone loss.
Publications:
  • Miller, R. L. and G. A. Schmidt and D. T. Shindell, 2006: Forced annular variations in the 20th century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report models. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D18101, doi:10.1029/2005JD006323. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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