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Regional analysis of ensembles of IPCC simulations: mean, interannual variability and extremes at the seasonal scale

PI: Filippo Giorgi
Institution: Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
Additional Investigators: X. Bi, J. Pal
Abstract:
We propose to carry out an analysis of surface air temperature, precipitation and circulation patterns in the latest set of IPCC SRES AOGCM transient simulations over a number of regions of sub-continental size. The analysis will focus on regionally and seasonally averaged climate statistics including changes in mean, interannual variability and extreme seasons. Emphasis will also be placed on the temporal evolution of the changes throughout the 21st century. The robustness and uncertainty of the simulated changes will be evaluated by intercomparing results across the ensemble of different model simulations, possibly within the framework of ensemble analysis methods such as the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method of Giorgi and Mearns (2002, 2003).
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