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Comparison of the hydrological balance over the arid/semi-arid regions of Eurasia (or China) using a statistical downscaling method

PI: Akiyo Yatagai
Institution: Research Institute for Humanity and Nature
Abstract:
Some studies related with recent global warming issues pointed out a general drying of the mid-continental areas during summer. This is ascribed to a combination of increased temperature and potential evaporation that is not balanced by increases of precipitation. However, in most cases, precipitation over adjacent mountainous regions is more important for the hydrological condition of the arid/semi-arid regions than that falls to the arid/semi-arid regions. Therefore I am investigating the impact of global warming to the local hydrological condition of the northern part of China and Turkey, the two contrastive semi-arid regions in the mid-continental areas of the Eurasian continent. I have already collected more than 1000 stations of precipitation data over northern part of China and that of more than 300 stations for Turkey. Using these data with satellite information and ERA40 dataset, I am developing a statistical downscaling method in order to apply it to the GCM outputs of the SRES scenario runs. During the process, first we are making daily grid precipitation data with including orographic effect for China for 40 years (Xie, Ming and Yatagai, 2003,http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/yris/newsletters.html). Comparison of precipitation of GCM control runs with this kind of quantified gridded precipitation data should be important to assess the performance of GCMS for the semi-arid regions environment. Then apply statistical relationship between atmospheric circulation, especially for moisture transport, and precipitation over the mountains adjacent to the arid/semi-arid regions of Eurasia. Finally, I compare the hydrological budget (precipitation, evapotranspiration, etc) for the regions. Now I request to use GCM outputs of the scenario (100 years of A2 and B2 scenarios) with control runs, and apply the method to the outputs. It should be useful to compare the performance of the models to assess the impact of the global warming over arid/semi-arid regions.
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