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A Bayesian climate change detection using multi-model ensembles

PI: Seung-Ki Min
Institution: Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn
Additional Investigators: Andreas Hense
Abstract:
The objective of this research is to search for anthropogenic and/or natural signals in the observed global and regional climate changes with the help of Bayesian statistics considering internal variability and inter-model uncertainties. Using a Bayesian decision method for climate change signal analysis developed by Min et al. (2004, 2005), we will compare monthly near-surface temperatures from the 20C3M and PIcntrl runs with observations. Possibly our approach will be extended into 3-D temperature field or other variables such as sea level pressure.

Reference:

Min, S.-K., A. Hense, H. Paeth, and W.-T. Kwon, 2004: A Bayesian decision method for climate change signal analysis. Meteorol. Z., 13, 421-436.
Min, S.-K., A. Hense, and W.-T. Kwon, 2005: Regional-scale climate change detection using a Bayesian decision method. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L03706, doi:10.1029/2004GL021028.
Publications:
  • Min, S.-K, D. Simonis, and A. Hense, 2007: Probabilistic climate change predictions applying Bayesian model averaging. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2103-2116, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2070. Abstract. Edit.
  • Min, S.-K., and A. Hense, 2007: Hierarchical evaluation of IPCC AR4 coupled climate models with systematic consideration of model uncertainties. Climate Dyn., 29, 853-868, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0269-2. Abstract. Edit.
  • Min, S.-K., and A. Hense, 2006: A Bayesian assessment of climate change using multimodel ensembles. Part I: Global mean surface temperature. J. Climate, 19, 3237-3256, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3784.1. Abstract. Edit.
  • Min, S.-K., and A. Hense, 2006: A Bayesian approach to climate model evaluation and multi-model averaging with an application to global mean surface temperatures from IPCC AR4 coupled climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08708, doi:10.1029/2006GL025779. Abstract. Edit.
  • Min, S.-K., and A. Hense, 2007: A Bayesian assessment of climate change using multimodel ensembles. Part II: Regional and seasonal mean surface temperatures. J. Climate, 20, 2769–2790, doi:10.1175/JCLI4178.1. Abstract. Edit.
  • Min, S.-K., X.B. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, P. Friederichs, and A. Hense, Signal detectability in extreme precipitation changes assessed from twentieth century climate simulations. Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0376-8. In press. Abstract. Edit.

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