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Upadting Our Estimate of the Contribution of Anthropogenic Emissions to Observed Climate Change

PI: Dáithí Stone
Institution: Oxford University
Additional Investigators: Nathan Gillett, Hugo Lambert
Abstract:
The aim of this proposal is to update some of the climate change detection and attribution analysis performed in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (Working Group 1) for the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report. In particular, we intend to repeat the analysis shown in Figure 12.12 of the TAR using more recent model output and observational measurements. This involves examining how well 20th Century simulations of the models reproduce observed long term and large scale surface air temperature changes through the use of the optimal detection method. These results can then be translated into estimated contributions of various forcings to the observed 20th Century warming. An update of this analysis would serve as a useful comparison of the state of our knowledge between the assessment reports. We also intend to undertake an extension of the analysis by applying the most recent developments in the optimal detection methodology which allow for the inclusion of multiple models in a single analysis and which account for systematic errors in the model representations. This extension will involve surface air temperature as well as precipitation and sea level pressure. The data required will be annual means from transient simulations up to present including both anthropogenic and natural forcing and identical simulations but excluding either the anthropogenic or natural component. Data from long control
simulations will also be required.
Publications:
  • Alley, R., et alii, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. In press. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Christensen, J. H., et alii, 2007: Chapter 11: Regional climate change projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Accepted. Abstract. Edit.
  • Gillett, N. P., 2005: Northern Hemisphere circulation. Nature, 437, 496. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Gillett, N.P., P.A. Stott, and B. D. Santer, 2008: Attribution of cyclonogenesis region sea surface temperature change to anthropogenic influence. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, 10.1029/2008GL033670. Abstract. Edit.
  • Gillett, N.P., R. J. Allan, and T. J. Ansell, 2005: Detection of external influence on sea level pressure with a multi-model ensemble. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, doi:10.1029/2005GL023640. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Hegerl, G., et alii, 2007: Chapter 9: Understanding and attributing climate change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Accepted. Abstract. Edit.
  • Lambert, F. H. and M. J. Webb, 2008: Dependency of global precipitation on surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett.. In press. Abstract. Edit.
  • Lambert, F. H. and M. R. Allen, Are changes in global precipitation constrained by the tropospheric energy budget?. J. Clim.. Accepted. Abstract. Edit.
  • Lambert, F. H., N. P. Gillett, D. A. Stone, and C. Huntingford, 2005: Attribution studies of observed land precipitation changes with nine coupled models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, doi:10.1029/2005GL023654. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Randall, D., et alii, 2007: Chapter 8: Climate models and their evaluation. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Accepted. Abstract. Edit.
  • Solomon, S., et alii, 2007: Technical Summary. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Accepted. Abstract. Edit.
  • Stone, D. A., and M. R. Allen, 2005: Attribution of global surface warming without dynamical models. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L18711, doi:10.1029/2005GL023682. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Stone, D. A., M. R. Allen, and P. A. Stott, 2007: A multi-model update on the detection and attribution of global surface warming. Journal of Climate, 20, 517-530. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.
  • Stone, D. A., M. R. Allen, F. Selten, M. Kliphuis, and P. A. Stott, 2007: The detection and attribution of climate change using an ensemble of opportunity. Journal of Climate, 20, 504–516. Abstract. Full Article. Edit.

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